Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020
Identifieur interne : 000209 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000208; suivant : 000210Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020
Auteurs : K. Roosa [États-Unis] ; Y. Lee [États-Unis] ; R. Luo [États-Unis] ; A. Kirpich [États-Unis] ; R. Rothenberg [États-Unis] ; J. M. Hyman [États-Unis] ; P. Yan [Canada] ; G. Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- Infectious Disease Modelling [ 2468-2152 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. The Chinese government has implemented containment strategies of city-wide lockdowns, screening at airports and train stations, and isolation of suspected patients; however, the cumulative case count keeps growing every day. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for modelers, as limited data are available on the early growth trajectory, and the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus are yet to be fully elucidated.
We use phenomenological models that have been validated during previous outbreaks to generate and assess short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed reported cases in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, and for the overall trajectory in China, excluding the province of Hubei. We collect daily reported cumulative confirmed cases for the 2019-nCoV outbreak for each Chinese province from the National Health Commission of China. Here, we provide 5, 10, and 15 day forecasts for five consecutive days, February 5th through February 9th, with quantified uncertainty based on a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model.
Our most recent forecasts reported here, based on data up until February 9, 2020, largely agree across the three models presented and suggest an average range of 7409–7496 additional confirmed cases in Hubei and 1128–1929 additional cases in other provinces within the next five days. Models also predict an average total cumulative case count between 37,415 and 38,028 in Hubei and 11,588–13,499 in other provinces by February 24, 2020.
Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both Hubei and other provinces have remained relatively stable in the last three reporting dates (February 7th – 9th). We also observe that each of the models predicts that the epidemic has reached saturation in both Hubei and other provinces. Our findings suggest that the containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission and that the epidemic growth has slowed in recent days.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.002
PubMed: 32110742
PubMed Central: 7033348
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000595
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000595
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000012
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000408
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000408
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000193
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000A03
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000A03
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000A03
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000211
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000209
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" sort="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="K." last="Roosa">K. Roosa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Y" sort="Lee, Y" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Y." last="Lee">Y. Lee</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Luo, R" sort="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R" first="R." last="Luo">R. Luo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kirpich, A" sort="Kirpich, A" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="A." last="Kirpich">A. Kirpich</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, R" sort="Rothenberg, R" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="R." last="Rothenberg">R. Rothenberg</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, J M" sort="Hyman, J M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="J. M." last="Hyman">J. M. Hyman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>LA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yan, P" sort="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P" first="P." last="Yan">P. Yan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ottawa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" sort="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="G." last="Chowell">G. Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32110742</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7033348</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7033348</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:7033348</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.002</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000595</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000595</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000595</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000595</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000012</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000012</idno>
<idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000408</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000408</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000408</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000408</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000193</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000193</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000A03</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000A03</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000A03</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">2468-2152:2020:Roosa K:real:time:forecasts</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000211</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000209</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000209</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" sort="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="K." last="Roosa">K. Roosa</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Y" sort="Lee, Y" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Y." last="Lee">Y. Lee</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Luo, R" sort="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R" first="R." last="Luo">R. Luo</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kirpich, A" sort="Kirpich, A" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="A." last="Kirpich">A. Kirpich</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, R" sort="Rothenberg, R" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="R." last="Rothenberg">R. Rothenberg</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, J M" sort="Hyman, J M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="J. M." last="Hyman">J. M. Hyman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>LA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yan, P" sort="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P" first="P." last="Yan">P. Yan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ottawa</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" sort="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="G." last="Chowell">G. Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>GA</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Infectious Disease Modelling</title>
<idno type="ISSN">2468-2152</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">2468-0427</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. The Chinese government has implemented containment strategies of city-wide lockdowns, screening at airports and train stations, and isolation of suspected patients; however, the cumulative case count keeps growing every day. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for modelers, as limited data are available on the early growth trajectory, and the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus are yet to be fully elucidated.</p>
<p>We use phenomenological models that have been validated during previous outbreaks to generate and assess short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed reported cases in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, and for the overall trajectory in China, excluding the province of Hubei. We collect daily reported cumulative confirmed cases for the 2019-nCoV outbreak for each Chinese province from the National Health Commission of China. Here, we provide 5, 10, and 15 day forecasts for five consecutive days, February 5th through February 9th, with quantified uncertainty based on a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model.</p>
<p>Our most recent forecasts reported here, based on data up until February 9, 2020, largely agree across the three models presented and suggest an average range of 7409–7496 additional confirmed cases in Hubei and 1128–1929 additional cases in other provinces within the next five days. Models also predict an average total cumulative case count between 37,415 and 38,028 in Hubei and 11,588–13,499 in other provinces by February 24, 2020.</p>
<p>Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both Hubei and other provinces have remained relatively stable in the last three reporting dates (February 7th – 9th). We also observe that each of the models predicts that the epidemic has reached saturation in both Hubei and other provinces. Our findings suggest that the containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission and that the epidemic growth has slowed in recent days.</p>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ai, S" uniqKey="Ai S">S. Ai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhu, G" uniqKey="Zhu G">G. Zhu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tian, F" uniqKey="Tian F">F. Tian</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, H" uniqKey="Li H">H. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, Y" uniqKey="Gao Y">Y. Gao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Y" uniqKey="Wu Y">Y. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lin, H" uniqKey="Lin H">H. Lin</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burger, R" uniqKey="Burger R">R. Bürger</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lara Di Az, L" uniqKey="Lara Di Az L">L. Lara-Díıaz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hincapie Palacio, D" uniqKey="Hincapie Palacio D">D. Hincapie-Palacio</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ospina, J" uniqKey="Ospina J">J. Ospina</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pell, B" uniqKey="Pell B">B. Pell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tariq, A" uniqKey="Tariq A">A. Tariq</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dahal, S" uniqKey="Dahal S">S. Dahal</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tariq, A" uniqKey="Tariq A">A. Tariq</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, J M" uniqKey="Hyman J">J.M. Hyman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Du, Z" uniqKey="Du Z">Z. Du</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, L" uniqKey="Wang L">L. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xu, X" uniqKey="Xu X">X. Xu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cowling, B" uniqKey="Cowling B">B. Cowling</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Funk, S" uniqKey="Funk S">S. Funk</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Camacho, A" uniqKey="Camacho A">A. Camacho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kucharski, A J" uniqKey="Kucharski A">A.J. Kucharski</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Eggo, R M" uniqKey="Eggo R">R.M. Eggo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W">W.J. Edmunds</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hopkins University, J" uniqKey="Hopkins University J">J. Hopkins University</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lai, S" uniqKey="Lai S">S. Lai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bogoch, I" uniqKey="Bogoch I">I. Bogoch</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ruktanonchai, N" uniqKey="Ruktanonchai N">N. Ruktanonchai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watts, A" uniqKey="Watts A">A. Watts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, Y" uniqKey="Li Y">Y. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yu, J" uniqKey="Yu J">J. Yu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tatem, A" uniqKey="Tatem A">A. Tatem</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L. Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tong, Y" uniqKey="Tong Y">Y. Tong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Feng, Z" uniqKey="Feng Z">Z. Feng</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pell, B" uniqKey="Pell B">B. Pell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kuang, Y" uniqKey="Kuang Y">Y. Kuang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Read, J M" uniqKey="Read J">J.M. Read</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bridgen, J R E" uniqKey="Bridgen J">J.R.E. Bridgen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, D A T" uniqKey="Cummings D">D.A.T. Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ho, A" uniqKey="Ho A">A. Ho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jewell, C P" uniqKey="Jewell C">C.P. Jewell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Richards, F" uniqKey="Richards F">F. Richards</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J. Riou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Althaus, C L" uniqKey="Althaus C">C.L. Althaus</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shanafelt, D W" uniqKey="Shanafelt D">D.W. Shanafelt</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jones, G" uniqKey="Jones G">G. Jones</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lima, M" uniqKey="Lima M">M. Lima</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Perrings, C" uniqKey="Perrings C">C. Perrings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Steinbuch, Y" uniqKey="Steinbuch Y">Y. Steinbuch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wang, X S" uniqKey="Wang X">X.-S. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="World Health Organization, W" uniqKey="World Health Organization W">W. World Health Organization</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="World Health Organization" uniqKey="World Health Organization">World Health Organization</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J.T. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, K" uniqKey="Leung K">K. Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, R" uniqKey="Zhang R">R. Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, H" uniqKey="Liu H">H. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, F" uniqKey="Li F">F. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, B" uniqKey="Zhang B">B. Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Q" uniqKey="Liu Q">Q. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, X" uniqKey="Li X">X. Li</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Roosa, K" sort="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="K." last="Roosa">K. Roosa</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Chowell, G" sort="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="G." last="Chowell">G. Chowell</name>
<name sortKey="Hyman, J M" sort="Hyman, J M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="J. M." last="Hyman">J. M. Hyman</name>
<name sortKey="Kirpich, A" sort="Kirpich, A" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="A." last="Kirpich">A. Kirpich</name>
<name sortKey="Lee, Y" sort="Lee, Y" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Y." last="Lee">Y. Lee</name>
<name sortKey="Luo, R" sort="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R" first="R." last="Luo">R. Luo</name>
<name sortKey="Rothenberg, R" sort="Rothenberg, R" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="R." last="Rothenberg">R. Rothenberg</name>
</country>
<country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yan, P" sort="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P" first="P." last="Yan">P. Yan</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000209 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000209 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Wicri/Sante |area= CovidV1 |flux= Main |étape= Exploration |type= RBID |clé= PMC:7033348 |texte= Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020 }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32110742" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |